4:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays: OVER 8 (+100)
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays will continue what some believe could be a preview of the 2023 World Series on Saturday afternoon from Tropicana Field, and I expect fireworks from these offenses. Two talented starters will take the mound in Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers) and Tyler Glasnow (Rays), but each are running into offensive buzzsaws in their respective platoon splits.
Kershaw sports a 6-4 record with a 2.98 ERA and a validating 3.33 xERA, but his 5.12 mark in the month of May against some tough offenses shows what can happen when he runs into a lefty-happy offense. Tampa Bay isn't just a lefty-happy offense, either. Their 163 wRC+ against southpaws is the best in baseball by a sizable margin. Kershaw has struggled in similar road spots this month at San Diego (4.2 IP, 4 ER) and at St. Louis (3.2 IP, 4 ER), and Tampa Bay will be his toughest test yet.
Tyler Glasnow is a talented righty for Tampa Bay with an electric fastball, and may very well be a play-on pitcher as the season rolls along, but not here. The righty has built himself up to six innings in his rehab work at Triple-A Durham, and the results have been good. But minor league results often have very little bearing on what happens in the bigs, and the Dodgers crush right-handed pitching (115 wRC+, second-best in baseball).
I expect the Rays to be careful with Glasnow's workload, and lean on their bullpen. The issue there for Tampa Bay is that its relief corps ranks 29th in MLB in May with a 6.61 ERA.
4:05 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles: OVER 9 (+100)
The Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers will meet for a second time May 27 after the Rangers' 12-2 drubbing of the O's on May 26 at Camden Yards. With each team hitting in their most comfortable platoon split, we should see plenty of runs once again in game two.
Andrew Heaney (3-3, 4.13 ERA) gets the ball for Texas, a high-variance lefty that Baltimore ought to see well. The Orioles crushed Heaney back on April 4, posting seven runs in just two innings while clubbing two home runs.
The lefty has pitched significantly better of late, allowing just two runs over 12 innings in his last two starts. But those came against the now 10-43 Oakland A's and the Colorado Rockies. The Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Yankees all hit him well in consecutive starts before that.
Baltimore ranks seventh in baseball with an impressive 119 wRC+ against southpaws and have clubbed 21 home runs against them while scoring the second-most runs against lefties in the league. Heaney is due for a clunker, and I think it'll arrive in this game.
After Heaney departs, the Texas bullpen will enter the fray. Since May 1, that group's 6.95 ERA is the worst in baseball.
Baltimore is sending Dean Kremer (5-1, 4.61 ERA) to the mound, a righty who has benefitted from incredible fortune of late. He holds a 1.96 ERA in May, but his 6.75 xERA tells a different story — as do the nine hits he allowed in his last start en route to smoke-and-mirroring his way through 5.1 innings while allowing one run.
The negative regression is coming for Kremer, and Texas (114 wRC+, third-best in MLB) is a safe bet to provide it.
This article was originally published by Betting Predators and is part of a Stadium Talk partnership with Betting Predators, a sports betting media/podcast platform with a hunger and drive to make sports bettors more successful bettors.
Dalton Brown writes MLB sports betting content for Betting Predators. Follow Dalton on Twitter @DaltonOnSports.
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