7:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at New York Mets: Yankees Moneyline (-103) at BetRivers
The Yankees and Mets will finish out the first installment of 2023's Subway Series on Wednesday night from Citi Field, and I'm backing Gerrit Cole over Justin Verlander in a matchup between two aces who haven't always looked like aces this season.
Of the two starters, Cole has looked closer to his peak form, and his advanced metrics back it up. Cole (7-1, 2.84 ERA) has pitched to a 4.01 xERA while maintaining elite velocity and striking out more batters than 66 percent of MLB starters. His leading indicators aren't otherworldly, but they're certainly solid, especially by comparison.
Justin Verlander (2-3, 4.85 ERA) has pitched to a 4.10 ERA but is striking out more batters than just 29 percent of pitchers and has seen his velocity tick down closer to league average. It is no surprise, then, that Verlander has been hit hard. Over his last five starts, the veteran righty has allowed five or more runs three times. If his Baseball Savant page didn't have his picture on it, it would be hard to distinguish him from some of the league's most pedestrian hurlers.
Neither team carries a big advantage against righties, but the Yankees have a massive edge in the bullpen. Since May 15, the Yanks rank second in baseball in bullpen ERA while the Mets rank just 27th. The Yankees have been treading water of late, winning five of their last 10, but the Mets have fallen off a cliff with a 1-9 record over that same span. The Yankees should be favorites.
10:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers Team Total OVER 5 (-110) at FanDuel
After the Dodgers took control early and never looked back in game one, Los Angeles will take on the Chicago White Sox in the middle game of a three-game set Wednesday night at Chavez Ravine. With Mike Clevinger heading to the mound for Chicago, I'm backing the Dodgers offense to stay hot.
The Dodgers' dominance of right-handed pitching has been well-established in this column, but for those new here, Los Angeles ranks fourth in MLB in wRC+ against righties at 113 and have finished top-7 in the category each of the last five seasons.
Their dominance of Clevinger is even more impressive, as Los Angeles torched the righty for 14 earned runs in just 13 innings in 2022. When the Padres and Dodgers met in the NLDS, Bob Melvin left Clevinger off of San Diego's roster as a result.
Los Angeles has scored five or more runs in five of its last seven, and Chicago has allowed five or more runs in three straight.
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This article was originally published by Betting Predators and is part of a Stadium Talk partnership with Betting Predators, a sports betting media/podcast platform with a hunger and drive to make sports bettors more successful bettors.
Dalton Brown writes MLB sports betting content for Betting Predators. Follow Dalton on Twitter @DaltonOnSports.
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